E-commerce Deep Dive, Q2 2025 (case study: Stitch Fix)
The era of volatility, tariff response, organic visibility goes from big to small sites
Speaking of a tumultuous first quarter! Trump’s tariffs, the expansion of TikTok shopping amid its potential ban and lots of known brands that lost year-over-year growth. This deep dive is a story of volatility - very different from last quarter!
Recap of Q1 e-com deep dive:
The e-commerce landscape continues to expand rapidly, with US e-commerce sales projected to grow 50% from 2023 to 2025, reaching approximately $1.4 trillion by the end of 2025.
Global retail e-commerce has entered a new growth phase, with sales exceeding $4.1 trillion in 2024 and forecasted to reach $6.4 trillion by 2029, driven by technological innovations and evolving consumer expectations.
AI is dramatically reshaping e-commerce strategies, with major platforms like Google transforming their shopping experience to compete with Amazon's e-commerce dominance and unlock additional revenue growth.
The competitive landscape is being disrupted by Chinese low-cost retailers like Shein and Temu, representing a third wave of Chinese retail that markets directly to consumers with their own platforms, supported by billion-dollar marketing budgets.
Emerging technologies like livestream shopping and augmented reality are becoming mainstream sales channels, with US livestream e-commerce sales reaching $50 billion in 2023 and projected to grow to $68 billion by 2026.
Key takeaways
Major shifts:
New US tariffs under Trump administration causing supply chain disruptions and price increases across the industry
TikTok Shop sees explosive growth (219% MoM in February) despite potential ban concerns
Recession indicators appearing in traffic patterns, with growth in discount retailers, auction sites, and refurbished goods
Search visibility shows interesting redistribution:
Small sites gaining relative visibility while large sites lose absolute visibility
Major retailers (Amazon, Walmart, Macy's) losing ground to specialized retailers
Google's "people-first" content push continues affecting product pages and blogs
Platform developments:
Amazon expanding beyond its platform with external product displays and AI shopping agents
Social commerce showing discovery strength (73% find products) but weak conversion (only 10% purchase within platform)
Tariff impact and strategies:
New base 10% tariff plus country-specific additional tariffs disrupting supply chains
Companies shifting to resilience tactics: clear messaging, spend reallocation, strategic pricing, and loyalty program focus
Long-term industry adjustments expected toward more diversified, regional supply chains