Chat GPT Search
Chat GPT Search may have a shot at Google
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Chat GPT Search (CGS) is a landmark launch in the shift from traditional to AI Search. Now, OpenAI competes with Google (Search) heads-on. Note the subtle elbow hit between the lines in the announcement:
Getting useful answers on the web can take a lot of effort. It often requires multiple searches and digging through links to find quality sources and the right information for you.1
The positioning is clear: Chat GPT Search is a way to get a straight answer without digging through cluttered search results or browsing websites.
CGS, which is directly integrated with Chat GPT instead of a stand-alone search engine, decides whether a query benefits from web results or not and you can rerun queries through other models like o1 preview to compare the answers:
ChatGPT will choose to search the web based on what you ask, or you can manually choose to search by clicking the web search icon.
It keeps the context of your search going in a conversation interface (bolding from me):
Go deeper with follow-up questions, and ChatGPT will consider the full context of your chat to get a better answer for you.
OpenAI has a strategic advantage, as I explained in Search GPT:
The Information reports that OpenAI loses $5b a year in expenses.1 Just capturing 3% of Google’s $175b Search business would allow OpenAI to recoup expenses.
OpenAI has a strategic advantage over Google: Search GPT can provide a very different, maybe less noisy, user experience than Google because it’s not reliant on ad revenue. In any decision regarding Search, Google needs to take ads into account.
CGS marks the entry to a new paradigm where traditional search engines like Google or Bing compete with AI Chatbots. They solve the same problems for users as search engines but with lower friction. But it also marks a critical event that should lead you to evaluate your strategy.
Companies face a choice to invest and “be early” to AI Search or ignore the noise and stay the course. What makes this decision hard:
Divided opinions about Chat GPT’s chance to take significant market share from Google
Rapidly changing mechanisms of AI Search platforms
Confusion about what to do
The first search engines didn’t represent the model (Google) that eventually won. In the same vein, the AI Search experience we’re seeing today might be completely different in a few years. However, there is little doubt that search is fundamentally changing. As a result, my recommendation is to invest in AI Search. It is not capital-intensive (yet), but the upside to finding a playbook is high. If CGS grabs significant Google market share, you’re in a good position. If it fails, no harm done.
Collision course
In the chart above, I extrapolated Chat GPT’s and Google’s total traffic over the next 2 years if the trend from the last 6 months remains constant. This chart will probably outrage or scare you, but the chance that events unfold exactly as depicted in this chart is low.
The reason I bring it up here is to consider the fact that many structural changes start slowly based on the saying “first gradually, then suddenly”. It took Google about 3-4 years to beat Yahoo, Altavista and Lycos. Given that new technology gets to critical mass ever faster, I’m not surprised Chat GPT could do it faster (in theory).
Chat GPT’s traffic has already passed the #3 search engine, Bing (Youtube is 2nd). When you look at comments and posts on social media, more and more people report using Chat GPT instead of Google for various purposes, but that could be availability bias.
One point a lot of people miss when looking at the traffic comparison between Chat GPT and Bing is that they’re not the same, and yet this is a fair comparison. Chat GPT is more than a search engine. People use it for all sorts of things. But that’s exactly the point: a search engine that looks like Google never stood a chance to compete with Google or Bing. CGS is something new, and that’s why it stands a chance. So, when you see chatgpt.com passing bing.com, the critical argument is not that both do different things but that they’re used to accomplish the same goal. After all, search is just a way to solve problems or achieve goals, not to search for the sake of searching.
To clarify, I don’t think Google or Alphabet as a company is at risk of dying. I do think CGS has a chance to capture significant market share, and too many people underestimate how fast this can go.
Referral traffic skyrockets
AI Search marks a new paradigm where users get a direct answer without having to browse websites. So, how should companies think about pivoting their strategy?
Here’s what I’m telling my clients when they ask me whether they should pivot their SEO roadmap: for now, no. Reserve 10-20% of capacity to establish visibility in AI Search and for experimentation.
Look for signal: If you’re hesitant to invest more in AI Search right now, at least monitor traffic to and from Chat GPT. Base your decision on how long Chat GPT can keep its current traffic trend up.
Establishing visibility: This referral dashboard from Flow Agency is great for monitoring referral traffic. With a few tweaks, you can monitor conversions in GA4 as well. You should also monitor site crawls from LLMs and your performance on Bing.
Then, experiment with content tweaks to improve your AI Search visibility. Keep investing in traditional SEO because it forms the basis of AI Search and answers.
Place a bet: The big question in this is whether you’re willing to take a bet or play it safe. Being a first-mover to SEO had massive benefits as the incumbents tend to stay incumbents, mainly caused by strong backlink profiles, robust user signals and brand familiarity. For now, Chat GPT uses Bing search results to ground and weigh answers, which means sites with strong visibility on Bing also have a high chance of being very visible in CGS. However, there is a chance that using Search for RAG (grounding) is just a jumping-off point until AI Search platforms have gathered enough of their data (queries and user behavior).
Early in this transition period, not much changes. Content that ranks well in traditional search engines, specifically Bing, gets a higher weighting in CGS, which means traditional SEO has a big impact on visibility in AI Search.
AI Chatbot referral traffic is skyrocketing, and Chat GPT’s new search capability could accelerate that growth even more. Outgoing referral traffic from chatgpt.com increased massively in August and September, according to Similarweb.
Noticeable call-outs:
Youtube referral traffic increased from .17% in July to 3.9% in September
Bing grew from 0% in April to 1.8% in September
Amazon grew from 0% in July to 1.1% in September
If referral traffic keeps growing at the same rate, it will get interesting in the next 6-12 months. It’s not just the volume but also the quality of traffic. People use longer and more complex questions when they engage with AI answers, according to Sundar PichAI. Length is a way to be more specific. Longer questions allow search engines, LLMs and marketers to better understand and serve users what they want. Based on conversations and observations, referral traffic from AI Chatbots isn’t consistently higher than search traffic in every case, but in most.
Looking forward
I’m leaving you with two interesting questions:
1/ Is it a coincidence that Chat GPT Search came out 3 days after Apple Intelligence launched publicly?
Apple launched Apple Intelligence, which uses ChatGPT in certain situations:2
Apple is integrating ChatGPT access into experiences within iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia, allowing users to access its expertise — as well as its image- and document-understanding capabilities — without needing to jump between tools. Siri can tap into ChatGPT’s expertise when helpful. Users are asked before any questions are sent to ChatGPT, along with any documents or photos, and Siri then presents the answer directly. Additionally, ChatGPT will be available in Apple’s systemwide Writing Tools, which help users generate content for anything they are writing about. With Compose, users can also access ChatGPT image tools to generate images in a wide variety of styles to complement what they are writing.
We also know how valuable Google’s exclusive search deal with Apple is.
From Monopoly:
Apple’s impact on Google Search is massive. The court documents reveal that 28% of Google searches (US) come from Safari and make up 56% of search volume. Consider that Apple sees 10 billion searches per week across all of its devices, with 8 billion happening on Safari and 2 billion from Siri and Spotlight. “Google receives only 7.6% of all queries on Apple devices through user-downloaded Chrome" and “10% of its searches on Apple devices through the Google Search App (GSA)." Google would take a big hit without the exclusive agreement with Apple.
Since Search is part of Chat GPT, any API request could trigger the new Search feature. As a result, Chat GPT has a direct line to searches and actions on Apple devices whenever Apple Intelligence uses Chat GPT. Is that integration the new version of Google’s deal with Apple?
I speculated that OpenAI could work on a browser in Search GPT:
If the main benefit or Search GPT for OpenAI is a revenue stream and access to more user data, the next logical step for OpenAI is to build a (AI-powered) browser.
Browser data is incredibly valuable for understanding user behavior, personalization and LLM training. Best of all, it’s app-agnostic, so OpenAI could learn from users even when they use Perplexity or Google. We’ve seen the power of browser data in the Google lawsuit, where it turned out Google relied on Chrome data all along for ranking. The only layer that’s more powerful is the operating system and device layer.
OpenAI seems to be very aware of the important of being the default when we look at how hard they push their Chrome extension, which changes the default browser search engine to Chat GPT.
2/ As it’s likely that more users don’t browse the web but get answers from Chat GPT, Gemini, Perplexity, etc. directly, will the open web become a place primarily for bots instead of humans? And how would that change the purpose and look of websites?
Great insights! With LLM's like ChatGPT gaining more search market share, businesses will need to improve their AI visibility strategies to keep organic traffic on an upward trend. Curious to hear your thoughts about other models like Perplexity and Claude.
I'm confused with those numbers from SimilarWeb.
In the US, ChatGPT(.com) gets 3,1 billion clicks x 18% (US traffic to that domain) = 555 million. The graph shows 120 million visits in the US.
On the other side, for the projected chart, Google(.com) has 82 billion visits x 25% (US traffic to that domain) = 20,5 billion visits in the US.
The chart says 4 or 5 billion visits (since the 4 is included twice). How do you get those numbers? :D I don't use SimilarWeb in the paid version, so I cannot check different stats other than what is publicly available for the domains.